Mr. Market
A fear & greed index for the stock market, 0–100, from VIX since 1990.
VIX close as of
- Previous close28 Fear
- 1 week ago21 Extreme Fear
- 1 month ago70 Greed
- 1 year ago45 Neutral
Keep buying, a little more
At 26, Fear. Volatility elevated. Forward returns above baseline.
- Keep regular contributions going, and consider bringing the next one forward.
- Work through your watchlist: quality businesses trading near their lows.Open Radar →
- Don't pause contributions if fear deepens.
Educational only, not investment advice. A rule of thumb from one indicator's history, not a forecast. Your own goals, time horizon and risk tolerance come first.See the evidence behind it
- 50-day avg
- 15.94
- 52-wk low
- 13.47
- 52-wk high
- 31.05
1-Year Position
50%22VIX sits at the 78th percentile of its last 252 sessions (13.47–31.05).
Trend vs 50-Day
25%18Spot 19.45 against a 50-day average of 15.94, a 22.0% gap.
Historical Regime
25%40Higher than 60% of every VIX close recorded since 1990.
What happened next
S&P 500 returns after each zone.
at 26 · Fear
Volatility elevated. Forward returns above baseline.
- Median
- +14.9%
- vs baseline
- +3.0%
- Positive
- 80%
- Worst decile
- -15.1%
Educational only — not investment advice. Historical averages from one indicator since 1990; only ~34 independent windows of 12 months, pooled across all zones.
Forward S&P 500 return by zone, 1990–2026.
| Zone | Signal | Sessions | Median | vs baseline | Positive | Worst decile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Fear | Accumulate | 1,567 | +2.1% | +0.9% | 66% | -5.4% |
| Fearnow | Lean In | 1,819 | +1.7% | +0.5% | 65% | -5.8% |
| Neutral | Neutral | 1,169 | +1.5% | +0.2% | 68% | -4.4% |
| Greed | Neutral | 2,405 | +1.1% | -0.2% | 64% | -4.3% |
| Extreme Greed | Neutral | 2,035 | +0.7% | -0.5% | 61% | -3.2% |
| All sessions | baseline | 8,995 | +1.3% | — | 64% | — |
| Extreme Fear | Accumulate | 1,566 | +4.5% | +1.4% | 75% | -6.9% |
| Fearnow | Lean In | 1,816 | +4.1% | +0.9% | 70% | -7.0% |
| Neutral | Neutral | 1,166 | +3.8% | +0.6% | 70% | -7.2% |
| Greed | Neutral | 2,389 | +2.6% | -0.5% | 68% | -7.4% |
| Extreme Greed | Neutral | 2,016 | +2.5% | -0.6% | 70% | -4.4% |
| All sessions | baseline | 8,953 | +3.2% | — | 70% | — |
| Extreme Fear | Accumulate | 1,564 | +8.3% | +2.6% | 74% | -8.2% |
| Fearnow | Lean In | 1,803 | +7.5% | +1.8% | 75% | -9.4% |
| Neutral | Neutral | 1,149 | +5.5% | -0.3% | 73% | -9.1% |
| Greed | Neutral | 2,362 | +4.7% | -1.1% | 72% | -8.8% |
| Extreme Greed | Neutral | 2,012 | +5.4% | -0.4% | 81% | -4.0% |
| All sessions | baseline | 8,890 | +5.8% | — | 75% | — |
| Extreme Fear | Accumulate | 1,529 | +16.2% | +4.3% | 75% | -15.5% |
| Fearnow | Lean In | 1,775 | +14.9% | +3.0% | 80% | -15.1% |
| Neutral | Neutral | 1,127 | +11.4% | -0.6% | 78% | -15.6% |
| Greed | Neutral | 2,336 | +10.3% | -1.6% | 79% | -14.2% |
| Extreme Greed | Neutral | 1,997 | +10.0% | -1.9% | 88% | -1.1% |
| All sessions | baseline | 8,764 | +11.9% | — | 80% | — |
~428 independent windows across all zones, fewer within each — treat small gaps as noise.
~142 independent windows across all zones, fewer within each — treat small gaps as noise.
~70 independent windows across all zones, fewer within each — treat small gaps as noise.
~34 independent windows across all zones, fewer within each — treat small gaps as noise.
The volatility record
Every close since 1990.
Method
High volatility is fear, low is greed.
| Input | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| 1-year position | 50% | Percentile of today's VIX within 252 sessions |
| Trend vs 50-day | 25% | Gap to the 50-day average, capped at ±35% |
| Historical regime | 25% | Percentile against every preceding close |
- No sell rung. Extreme greed has the mildest downside of any zone and the best 6- and 12-month hit rate.
- No look-ahead. The regime percentile expands forward, so 1995 is never ranked against 2020.
- One input. No breadth, momentum, put/call or credit spreads.
- Not advice. Sentiment describes the present; it does not forecast returns.