Compounding through first principles.
Exceptional businesses, held long enough to compound.
Four principles. One discipline.
Moat
A durable advantage that keeps competitors out, so high returns on capital last for years instead of being competed away.
- Returns on capital above the cost of capital, through a full cycle
- A clear source: brand, network effects, switching costs, scale or regulation
- Market share that holds or grows when rivals cut prices
Management
Honest, capable people who think like owners. Over a decade, what management does with the cash matters as much as the business itself.
- Meaningful insider ownership, and pay tied to per-share value
- Reinvestment, buybacks and acquisitions that earned their keep
- Candid letters that own mistakes, not just adjusted numbers
Margin
The power to raise prices without losing customers. Wide, steady margins are the visible sign of a moat at work.
- Gross and operating margins that are high and stable, not peak-cycle
- Price increases that stick through inflation and downturns
- Earnings that turn into free cash flow
Momentum
A long runway to reinvest at high returns. Compounding needs a high rate and a long time; the runway supplies the time.
- A large or growing market, and still a small share of it
- New capital earning returns as good as the old
- Growth funded from cash flow, not dilution or debt
See the market clearly.
- US companies screened by Radar
- 1,877
- Government stock trades, last 12 months
- 8,136
- Superinvestor portfolios followed
- 20
- Years of VIX behind Mr. Market
- 36
Kuberin Radar™
Quality businesses near their lows.
Kuberin Option™
Up, down or sideways: the options trade that fits, explained.
Kuberin Gate™
A limit price read from the chart, explained.
Mr. Market
Market sentiment, from VIX since 1990.
Mr. Congress
What Congress and the administration are trading.
Mr. Main Street
Jobs, wages, prices and housing, scored 0–100.
Mr. Executive
CEO pay against returns, insider trades and red flags, for the S&P 500.
“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”